CEOs are bracing for a turbulent 2026 as growth pressures, AI disruption and workforce shifts collide, according to Gartner HR Symposium 2025 experts.

“If 2025 was about the promise [of the future of work], 2026 is really about how we realize that promise,” according to Peter Aykens, chief of research at Gartner. “If we were thinking the devil was going to be in the details, now we’re very much in those details.”

CEO uncertainty is on the rise

Those details add up to what Aykens described as a set of “wicked messes” for CEOs. The phrase, which Aykens said was drawn from the “wicked problems” of the 1970s, reflects a moment when politics, technology and business intersect, making old playbooks less effective.

Wicked problems are complex social or planning issues with no clear definition, solution or stopping point, according to Stony Brook University. Coined by Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber in 1973, these problems are unique, interconnected and difficult to test or reverse, and every attempted solution has lasting consequences.

Similarly, today these challenges aren’t just theoretical. Recent data shows that leaders are feeling the strain as uncertainty rises and executive turnover climbs. Gartner’s recent CEO Confidence Index came in at 49.6 on a 0-100 scale, which Aykens said shows that volatility is weighing heavily on leaders.

Additionally, executive search and leadership advisory firm Russell Reynolds found that more than 200 CEOs at large public companies left their positions in 2024, and the average CEO tenure has decreased to approximately four-and-a-half years.

‘Wicked messes’ deteriorate CEO confidence

Despite the turmoil, CEOs rank growth as their top priority, followed by cost control, risk and resilience, and technology. Workforce priorities, once a strong third, have slid down the list. “Over the last two years, I’ve watched that systematically slip,” Aykens said. “CEOs are bringing a much harder-edged view to what they are looking for from their workforce.”

Aykens identified three intertwined challenges landing on the CEO’s desk in 2026. Each one, he said, carries deep implications for HR leaders.

Turmoil-driven growth: How to expand amid global volatility

Today’s uncertainty surpasses the financial crisis, Brexit and the pandemic combined, according to Aykens. CEOs are reworking global operations as markets grow more fragmented. He said more than half expect U.S. policy to impact their supply chains, and many are redesigning them as a result.

Pricing and cost control are also front of mind. According to the KPMG 2025 Global CEO Outlook, which surveyed 1,300 CEOs worldwide, 45% of chief executives plan to raise prices above normal rates, and 77% are pursuing efficiency measures. But across-the-board cuts might not support sustainable growth. “You may get the initial savings,” Aykens said, “but that performance drops off over time.”

HR leaders have work to do to prepare their CEOs for growth moves. “If your [organization is] thinking about entering a new market, what is it going to take from a roles and skills perspective to get there?” Aykens asked. “If you’re exiting a market, what are you going to lose in terms of access to skills?”

The AI value conundrum: How to capture measurable benefit

Seventy-nine percent of CEOs currently see AI as the biggest disruptor to their industries, according to the KPMG research. Most plan to continue investing even as overall IT budgets tighten. “CEOs are just obsessed with AI,” Aykens said.

But realizing value is proving difficult. As nations develop separate AI systems and regulations, CEOs are navigating what Aykens called “AI infrastructure sovereignty.” He says choosing technology partners is not just a technical issue: “It is going to be a geopolitical issue.”

Energy needs are another constraint, he added. Large language models consume enormous power, and questions remain about long-term sustainability.

Technology leadership is also in flux. Aykens said many CEOs have pulled AI projects into their own offices after they determined that progress lagged under the direction of other business leaders. Still, they expect their C-suite to take the lead. Only 7% of CEOs say their CHROs have enough AI savviness, according to KPMG, and 44% say the same about their CIOs.

This should be seen as an opportunity. “There’s no one better positioned to convene, to catalyze, to organize and drive C-suite collaboration than HR,” Aykens said.

Workforce remixing: How to integrate people and systems

The third wicked mess centers on the workforce itself. CEOs continue to want organizational resilience but are investing less in people and culture. KPMG found that nearly one in five CEOs reported reducing those investments, more than double the figure from last year.

To manage, some companies are quietly managing attrition. “The bet is, can AI become a new workforce?” the speaker said. “The answer to that is probably yes, but not right now.”

AI adoption also has a cumulative effect on what companies are at their core. “It changes how we work and who we are as an organization,” the speaker said. “It can change our values and how we interact with other people.” And people remain essential to AI adoption, as they are the ones who develop use cases, redesign processes and drive organizational change. “AI cannot do that,” said Aykens.

HR must help CEOs manage these wicked messes by guiding workforce strategy, clarifying talent costs, building AI literacy across leadership and evolving culture alongside technology. “You need to become much more of an enterprise leader, a true strategic navigator,” Aykens said. “This is a terrific moment for [CHROs]. And you are absolutely ready for it.”