The coronavirus pandemic could have some unforeseen consequences for employers: declining healthcare costs.
That’s according to a new report from consulting firm Willis Towers Watson, which finds that COVID-19 could reduce employer healthcare costs by as much as 4% in 2020 due to a decrease in employees getting non-essential medical care. The analysis updates the group’s previous report from last month, which found sharply different results–that employers could see their healthcare costs increase up to 7% this year due to coronavirus treatment and testing costs.
The analysis paints a good-news-bad-news scenario: Healthcare costs may decrease for employers, but employees may not be getting the non-coronavirus medical care they need during the pandemic. In turn, employees forgoing care may increase healthcare costs for companies in the long-run, says Kim Buckey, vice president of client services at benefits company DirectPath.
“There may be longer-term impact if health conditions are not identified and treated on a timely basis,” she told HRE recently.
Willis Towers Watson’s study utilizes recent estimates of infection levels in the U.S., which vary significantly by geography and reflect the latest projections of Americans expected to be hit with the first wave of COVID-19. According to the analysis, at a 1% infection level, employer costs could decline between 1% and 4%, depending on how much medical care is deferred. At a 15% infection level, employer costs could rise or fall by roughly 1% depending on care deferral. In the most severe scenario–a 20% infection level–costs could rise between 1% and 3%, still below projections from the earlier analysis.
The estimates in the analysis reflect increases to 2020 employer medical and pharmacy claim costs only, Willis Towers Watson notes. Other healthcare plan costs, such as dental and vision, will likely see lower costs in 2020, as employees likely will eliminate some discretionary care. The analysis also does not consider other impacts, including non-health benefit costs such as disability or life insurance, increased mortality and broad negative economic impact.
“The ultimate financial impact of COVID-19 on employer healthcare plan costs in 2020 will depend on other factors, including the rate at which the virus spreads and the severity of illness of those infected,” Parson says.